Does the result in Iowa mean anything for the Presidential race?
9 months ago Hilary Clinton was not only favourite to be the Democrat nomination but also a dead cert to be the next President? So have he wheels come off?
I have noticed the BBC get very excited about this Iowa caucus and spend huge sums of money having reporters and analysis beamed in directly to our homes. You have to ask why this is when I cannot recollect them ever getting this excited about a presidential election. Could it have something to do with th e current slow news?
Suggesting that the presidential candidates have almost been decided from a caucus in Iowa - the equivalent of Crawley getting together for a meeting - is absurd. You only have to look at history to know that the result in Iowa is not going to make a lot of difference to the final result of this election.
In 1992 Bill Clinton only got 3% in Iowa but went on to win the nomination. In 1988 the eventual Democrat nominee Michael Dukakis got 22% and was 3rd. For the Republicans in 1988 Bob Dole beat VP (and nominee) George HW Bush by 37% to 19% - Pat Robertson got 25%.
This is an interesting result but not one that should be unexpected.
Some have claimed it is remarkable that Obama got such large support from a mainly white area. Is it? The fact is that Iowa has a 91% white population. This is against an national white population of 75%. However, in the US only 70% of the population is registered to vote and turnouts are terrible in presidential elections. In fact the turnout of 54% at the last election is only down from the early 60%’s there were in the early 60’s - they have always been bad. But then, guess which sector of the population is not going to register to vote; the poor and those from ethnic groups. Race is not the issue here but an anti-women vote might be!
It is very clear that Clinton has a fight on her hands if she is to win the nomination, bu all is not lost, quite the opposite.
A final thought - only one President, who was a non-incumbent, has won the Iowa caucus and gone on to win the General Election. That man was George W Bush!
BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Iowa wins for Huckabee and Obama:
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